Airport maths quest: probability

Quick answer

Probability is how likely something is to happen – from certain to impossible. In an airport, you can use probability to guess if a flight will be on time, how much your luggage weighs, or which route a plane might take.

Learning outcome

By the end of this page, you will understand how to describe how likely events are using words like certain, likely, unlikely, and impossible, and how to use these ideas in real-life situations like planning a trip or guessing what happens next at the airport.

• I can sort events from most likely to least likely
• I can use words like "certain", "likely", "unlikely", and "impossible" to describe events
• I can explain how probability helps us make choices in everyday life
• I can think of examples from my own life that show these ideas

Why this matters

Probability helps us understand the chances of things happening. When you’re at the airport, you might think, “Will my flight be on time?” or “Will I get lucky and find a seat near the window?” These are questions about probability. Understanding probability helps you make better choices, whether it’s picking a good time to go to the airport, packing your suitcase, or planning your journey.

Probability also helps you think about the future in a smart way. It’s not just about guessing – it’s about making good decisions using what you know. In games, sports, and even cooking, probability helps us predict what might happen next.

How it works

Probability is about how sure or unsure we are that something will happen. We can sort events from most to least likely:

1. Certain – It will definitely happen.
2. Very likely – It will probably happen.
3. Likely – It might happen.
4. Unlikely – It might not happen.
5. Very unlikely – It probably won’t happen.
6. Impossible – It can’t happen.

For example, at the airport:

• Certain: The plane will take off from the runway.
• Likely: The flight will be on time.
• Unlikely: The plane will fly to the moon.
• Impossible: The plane will fly backwards.

Examples you can see

Imagine you're at the airport with your family. You’re waiting for a flight:

• Event: Your flight will be delayed by more than 30 minutes.
• Probability: Unlikely – It might happen, but not very often.

• Event: You’ll find your seat on the plane.
• Probability: Likely – It usually happens.

• Event: You’ll meet someone famous at the airport.
• Probability: Very unlikely – It’s rare, but not impossible.

• Event: The plane will take off from the airport.
• Probability: Certain – It must happen if the flight is scheduled.

You can also think about luggage:

• Event: Your suitcase will weigh less than 20kg.
• Probability: Likely – Most people pack light enough.

• Event: Your suitcase will be lost in the hold.
• Probability: Unlikely – It happens sometimes, but not often.

• Event: Your suitcase will weigh 100kg.
• Probability: Impossible – That’s too heavy for any airline.

Try it as a mini adventure

Airport Maths Quest: The Probability Challenge

You are planning a trip to visit your friend who lives in another country. You need to find out the chance of different things happening. Here’s your quest:

1. Step 1: Look at the departure board. What is the chance that your flight will be on time? Is it likely or unlikely?
2. Step 2: You are packing your suitcase. Will your suitcase be heavy enough to fit in the hold? Is this likely or impossible?
3. Step 3: You are waiting at the gate. What is the chance that the plane will take off in the next 10 minutes? Is it certain, likely, or unlikely?
4. Step 4: You are in the airport café. What is the chance that you will see a plane land? Is it certain, likely, or impossible?
5. Step 5: You are at the gate. What is the chance that you will be seated in a window seat? Is it likely, unlikely, or impossible?

After completing your quest, you can write down your answers or draw a picture of what might happen next.

Common mistakes

• Mistake: Thinking that “unlikely” means “impossible.”
• Why it happens: Children might mix up the words because they sound similar.
• Fix: “Unlikely” means something might happen, but not very often. “Impossible” means it can’t happen at all.

• Mistake: Not understanding that probability is about chance, not certainty.
• Why it happens: Young children often think that if something happens once, it will happen again.
• Fix: Explain that probability helps us guess the chance of something happening, not predict it exactly.

• Mistake: Confusing “likely” and “certain.”
• Why it happens: The words are close in meaning, so children may use them interchangeably.
• Fix: “Certain” means it will definitely happen. “Likely” means it will probably happen, but not for sure.

Parent and carer guide

Help your child understand probability by using everyday situations:

• Ask questions like, “Is it likely that it will rain today?” or “Is it certain that the sun will rise tomorrow?”
• Use the airport as a fun setting to talk about probability – for example, “What do you think the chance is that the flight will be delayed?”
• Encourage your child to sort events from most to least likely using the words: certain, very likely, likely, unlikely, very unlikely, and impossible.
• Let your child draw or act out events to help them understand probability.
• Don’t worry if they get it wrong at first – probability is a skill that grows with practice.

Practice questions

1. Is it likely or impossible that a plane will fly to the moon?
2. Is it certain or unlikely that you will get on the plane when you arrive?
3. Is it very likely or very unlikely that you will see a bird in the airport?
4. Is it impossible or certain that the plane will take off from the runway?
5. Is it likely or impossible that your suitcase will weigh 150kg?

Answers:

1. Impossible
2. Certain
3. Very unlikely
4. Certain
5. Impossible

FAQ

What is probability?

Probability is how likely something is to happen. It can be certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible.

Why do we use probability?

We use probability to help us make smart choices, like when to go to the airport, or what to pack in your suitcase.

Can you give me a real-life example of probability?

Yes! At the airport, the chance of your flight being delayed is unlikely, but the chance of the plane taking off is certain.

How can I help my child learn probability?

You can talk about chances in everyday life, like “It’s likely it will rain tomorrow,” or “It’s impossible for a plane to fly to the moon.”

Is probability the same as guessing?

Guessing is one part of probability, but probability also uses facts and patterns to help us understand how likely things are.