Arctic maths quest: probability

Quick answer

In an Arctic maths quest, you use words like likely, unlikely, certain, and impossible to describe how probable different events are when you're exploring icy lands and surviving in the cold.

Learning outcome

By the end of this page, you will be able to say whether events are likely, unlikely, certain, or impossible in your Arctic adventure, and explain why.

• You can sort events from most to least likely.
• You can use words like "certain", "impossible", "likely", and "unlikely" to describe what might happen.
• You can make predictions about your next steps in the ice map.
• You can explain your thinking when choosing survival supplies.

Why this matters

Probability helps us understand how likely or unlikely something is to happen. In your Arctic quest, you might need to know if it's likely that you'll find a warm cave or if it's impossible to walk on the ice without a sled. This skill helps you make smart choices when you're exploring, planning, or even playing games. Probability is also used in weather forecasts, sports, and science!

How it works

Probability is about how sure we are that something will happen. Here's how to think about it:

1. Certain means it will definitely happen – like the sun rising in the morning.
2. Impossible means it will never happen – like a penguin flying.
3. Likely means it will probably happen – like getting snow on the ground in winter.
4. Unlikely means it might happen, but not very often – like finding a golden snowflake.

You can also use a probability line to show how events fit between certain and impossible.

Examples you can see

Let’s imagine your Arctic adventure with your ice map and survival gear:

• It is certain that you will need to eat food to stay alive.
• It is impossible for you to breathe underwater without a mask.
• It is likely that you will find snow when walking through the icy tundra.
• It is unlikely that you will meet a friendly polar bear in the first hour of your journey.

Here’s a table to help you think about your choices:

Try it as a mini adventure

Imagine you are on an Arctic quest with your friend, and you are planning your journey. You have a map and a list of items:

1. First time: You are choosing your survival supplies. You must pick one item from this list: Warm jacket, ice skates, compass, or a snow shovel. Which one is most likely to help you survive?
2. Second time: You are looking at the ice map. You see a path marked with a red dot. What does this mean for your journey? Is it likely you will take this path?
3. Third time: You are about to cross a frozen lake. The ice looks thin. Is it likely or unlikely that you will fall through?
4. Fourth time: You see a cave in the distance. You have a compass and a snow shovel. Is it certain that you will find shelter there?
5. Fifth time: You are about to eat your lunch. You have a sandwich, a warm drink, and a piece of chocolate. What is impossible for you to do while eating?

Common mistakes

• Mistake: Thinking that "unlikely" means "never happens".
  Why it happens: Children sometimes mix up "unlikely" with "impossible".
  Fix: Remember that "unlikely" means "not very likely", but it can still happen.
• Mistake: Saying that all events are "likely" or "unlikely".
  Why it happens: It's easy to use the same word for everything.
  Fix: Think carefully about how sure you are – is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely?
• Mistake: Confusing "certain" and "likely".
  Why it happens: Both words suggest something will happen, but "certain" means 100% sure.
  Fix: Ask yourself: "Will this definitely happen?" If yes, it's certain. If not, it's likely.

Parent and carer guide

Help your child explore probability by asking questions about everyday events. For example:

• “Is it likely that it will rain today?”
• “Is it impossible for you to fly to the moon without a spaceship?”
• “Is it certain that you will go to school tomorrow?”
• “Is it unlikely that you’ll find a unicorn in your garden?”

Use your child’s imagination and let them make predictions. Encourage them to explain why they think something is likely or unlikely. If they mix up the words, gently remind them of the meanings.

Tip: You can make a simple chart with the words “Certain”, “Likely”, “Unlikely”, and “Impossible” and let your child place events in the right box.

Practice questions

1. Is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely that you will see snow in winter?
2. Is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely that a fish can live on land?
3. Is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely that you will get a snack at lunchtime?
4. Is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely that you will eat a sandwich for lunch?
5. Is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely that you will find a treasure in your room?

Answers:

1. Likely
2. Impossible
3. Likely
4. Likely
5. Unlikely

FAQ

What does it mean when something is "certain"?

When something is certain, it will definitely happen. For example, the sun rises every morning – that’s certain!

What does it mean when something is "impossible"?

When something is impossible, it will never happen. For example, a penguin flying is impossible.

What does it mean when something is "likely"?

When something is likely, it will probably happen. For example, it’s likely that it will snow in winter in the Arctic.

What does it mean when something is "unlikely"?

When something is unlikely, it might happen, but not very often. For example, finding a golden snowflake is unlikely.

How can I use probability in real life?

You can use probability to make smart choices, like picking the best path on a map or deciding what to pack for a trip. It helps you think ahead and prepare for what might happen.