Dinosaur maths quest: probability
A story-led junior maths adventure using fossils, footprints and giant timelines to talk about likely, unlikely, certain and impossible events.
Quick answer
Probability is about how likely something is to happen, from impossible to certain. In a Dinosaur maths quest, you'll use clues like footprints, fossils, and timelines to work out what's most likely to have happened in the past.
Learning outcome
By the end of this page, you will be able to sort events from impossible to certain and describe how likely they are using words like "certain", "impossible", "likely", and "unlikely".
- You can say whether an event is possible or not.
- You can compare events to say which is more or less likely.
- You can use probability words to describe your own everyday events.
- You can solve simple probability problems using clues and evidence.
Why this matters
Probability helps you understand the chance of things happening. Whether you're deciding what to wear based on the weather, guessing which game to play, or planning a trip, probability helps you make good choices. In a Dinosaur maths quest, you use probability to work out what might have happened millions of years ago. It's like being a detective, but with numbers!
How it works
Probability is all about how sure you are that something will happen. We use words to describe how likely events are:
- Impossible – Something that can never happen. Like a dinosaur flying.
- Unlikely – Something that might happen, but not very often. Like finding a gold coin in your pocket.
- Likely – Something that often happens. Like seeing a bird outside your window.
- Certain – Something that always happens. Like the sun rising tomorrow.
When you're a Dinosaur detective, you look at clues like footprints, bones, and rock layers to decide how likely it is that a dinosaur was there, or that it did something.
Examples you can see
Let's go on a Dinosaur maths quest and look at some clues:
- Clue 1: You find a big footprint in the mud. The footprint is 30cm wide. What do you think? Is it likely that a big dinosaur stepped there? Yes, it's likely!
- Clue 2: You see a tiny fossil of a fish. Is it likely that a dinosaur ate it? No, it's unlikely.
- Clue 3: You see a fossil of a small dinosaur. Is it certain that it was a dinosaur? Yes, it's certain!
- Clue 4: You find a dinosaur footprint in a place where there is no soil or rock. Is it possible that a dinosaur was there? No, it's impossible!
Let's try another example with a timeline:
| Event | How likely? |
|---|---|
| Dinosaurs lived millions of years ago | Certain |
| A dinosaur flew in the sky | Impossible |
| Someone found a fossil in a cave | Likely |
| Someone found a flying dinosaur | Impossible |
Try it as a mini adventure
Imagine you're a Dinosaur detective on a quest to find out what happened in the past. You have a bag of clues:
- Clue 1: You found a big footprint in the mud. You measure it and it's 40cm wide. Is it likely that a big dinosaur stepped there? Yes, it's likely!
- Clue 2: You see a small fossil of a fish. Is it likely that a dinosaur ate it? No, it's unlikely.
- Clue 3: You see a fossil of a small dinosaur. Is it certain that it was a dinosaur? Yes, it's certain!
- Clue 4: You find a dinosaur footprint in a place where there is no soil or rock. Is it possible that a dinosaur was there? No, it's impossible!
- Clue 5: You find a fossil with a hole in it. Is it likely that a bird ate it? Yes, it's likely!
Now, can you sort these events from most likely to least likely?
- Someone found a fossil in a cave
- Someone found a flying dinosaur
- A dinosaur flew in the sky
- A bird ate a fossil
- Dinosaurs lived millions of years ago
Common mistakes
- Mistake: Saying that "unlikely" means "impossible".
Why it happens: Children mix up the words because they both mean "not happening".
Fix: Remember, "unlikely" means "not very often", but it can still happen. "Impossible" means "never happens". - Mistake: Thinking that "certain" means "always happening".
Why it happens: Some children think "certain" means "happening now".
Fix: "Certain" means "will always happen", not "happens now". - Mistake: Confusing "likely" and "unlikely" with "probably" and "possibly".
Why it happens: These words sound similar and are often used together.
Fix: "Likely" = more than half the time, "unlikely" = less than half the time.
Parent and carer guide
As a parent or carer, you can help your child by:
- Using everyday situations to talk about probability. For example, "It's likely it will rain tomorrow" or "It's impossible for me to fly".
- Playing games that involve chance, like rolling dice or flipping coins, to show what "likely" and "unlikely" look like.
- Looking at the news or weather with your child and discussing what might happen next.
- Encouraging your child to think of their own examples of events and how likely they are.
- Not worrying if they mix up words at first – this is part of learning!
Try asking questions like:
- What do you think is most likely to happen today?
- Can you think of something that is impossible?
- What makes something more or less likely?
Practice questions
- Is it likely that you will find a dinosaur fossil in your garden? Unlikely
- Is it certain that the sun will rise tomorrow? Certain
- Is it impossible that a fish can fly? Impossible
- Is it likely that you will eat pizza for lunch? Likely
- Is it impossible that a dinosaur can swim? Unlikely
- Is it certain that you will go to school tomorrow? Likely
- Is it impossible that a human can breathe underwater? Impossible
- Is it likely that a dinosaur will come to your house? Unlikely
- Is it certain that you will have a birthday? Certain
- Is it impossible that a dinosaur will eat your lunch? Unlikely
FAQ
What does probability mean?
Probability is how likely something is to happen. We use words like "certain", "impossible", "likely", and "unlikely" to describe how sure we are.
Can you give me more examples of probability?
Yes! It's likely that you will wake up in the morning. It's impossible that you will grow wings. It's unlikely that you will win the lottery. It's certain that you will have a birthday.
How do I know if something is certain or impossible?
If something always happens, it's certain. If something can never happen, it's impossible. If something sometimes happens, it's likely or unlikely.
Why do we need to learn about probability?
Probability helps us make good decisions. It helps us understand what might happen and prepare for it. In a Dinosaur maths quest, we use it to guess what happened in the past.
Can probability be used in games?
Yes! When you roll a dice, you can't be sure what number you'll get, but you can say that getting a 6 is less likely than getting a 3 or 4.