Fairground maths quest: probability
A story-led junior maths adventure using rides, tickets and chance games to talk about likely, unlikely, certain and impossible events.
Quick answer
Probability is about how likely something is to happen. In a fairground, you can use words like impossible, unlikely, likely, and certain to describe your chances of winning a prize or riding a rollercoaster.
Learning outcome
By the end of this page, you will be able to describe the chance of different events using words like impossible, unlikely, likely, and certain, and understand how these words help us talk about what might happen.
- I can sort events from most to least likely
- I can use the words impossible, unlikely, likely, and certain to describe events
- I can imagine and describe what might happen on a fairground
- I can share my ideas about chance with others
Why this matters
Probability helps us understand the chances of things happening. When you go to a fairground, you might wonder if you’ll win a prize or if a ride will be crowded. Learning about probability helps you make smart choices and understand the world around you. It’s also useful in games, sports, and even cooking!
How it works
Probability is all about chance. We use words to describe how likely something is to happen:
- Impossible – something that can never happen
- Unlikely – something that might happen, but not very often
- Likely – something that probably will happen
- Certain – something that will definitely happen
Let’s imagine you are at a fairground and you want to know how likely it is to win a prize from a game. You can think about:
- How many chances you have
- How many prizes are available
- How many people are playing
Then you can say if winning a prize is impossible, unlikely, likely, or certain.
Examples you can see
Let’s explore some fairground examples:
| Event | Probability | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Winning a large teddy bear | Unlikely | There are only a few teddy bears, so it’s hard to win one |
| Getting a small candy | Likely | There are lots of small candies, so you probably will get one |
| Not getting any prize at all | Unlikely | Most games give out some kind of prize |
| Getting a prize from a game | Likely | Games are designed to give out prizes often |
| Rollercoaster being closed | Unlikely | Most rollercoasters are open, but sometimes they close for safety |
| Rollercoaster being full | Likely | Popular rides are usually full, especially on busy days |
Try it as a mini adventure
Imagine you are going on a fairground trip with your family. You have a list of rides and games you want to try. Here’s your mission:
- Go to the Ring Toss game where you throw rings to win prizes
- At the Cotton Candy stand, you want to buy a small bag
- On the Teacup ride, you want to go on it
- At the Guess the Number game, you want to win a prize
- Finally, you want to eat ice cream at the ice cream van
Now, for each of these events, decide if it is impossible, unlikely, likely, or certain. Then explain why!
Example:
- Event: Winning a prize at Ring Toss
- Probability: Likely
- Why: The game is easy and there are many prizes
Common mistakes
- Mistake: Saying that something is impossible when it might happen
- Why: A child might think they can't win a prize because they're not very good at games
- Fix: Remind them that even if it's hard, it’s not impossible
- Mistake: Mixing up "likely" and "certain"
- Why: A child might say a ride is certain to be full, but it might not always be
- Fix: Explain that something is certain only if it always happens
- Mistake: Thinking that all events are equally likely
- Why: A child might say getting a prize is just as likely as not getting one
- Fix: Help them think about how many prizes and how many chances there are
Parent and carer guide
Help your child explore probability by talking about fairground events:
- Ask them to describe how likely it is to win a prize at different games
- Encourage them to use words like impossible, unlikely, likely, and certain
- Play a quick game: name an event, and let them guess its probability
- Use real examples from your own life – like the weather or getting a bedtime story
- Don’t worry if they get it wrong – it’s part of learning!
Tip: If you're at a real fairground, ask your child to predict what will happen before trying a game. This helps them think about probability in a fun way.
Practice questions
- Is it impossible, unlikely, likely, or certain to win a prize at a fairground game?
- Is it impossible, unlikely, likely, or certain to ride a rollercoaster at a fairground?
- Is it impossible, unlikely, likely, or certain to get a free candy from a machine?
- Is it impossible, unlikely, likely, or certain to see a rainbow after rain?
- Is it impossible, unlikely, likely, or certain to get a ticket for a ride?
Answers:
- Likely
- Likely
- Likely
- Unlikely
- Certain
FAQ
What does probability mean?
Probability is how likely something is to happen. We use words like impossible, unlikely, likely, and certain to describe this.
Can something be both likely and unlikely?
No, each event is either impossible, unlikely, likely, or certain. But the same event might be likely in one situation and unlikely in another.
Why is it helpful to know about probability?
It helps us make good choices and understand what might happen. For example, if a ride is likely to be full, you might wait for a quieter time.
Can I use probability at home?
Yes! You can talk about the chance of getting a good grade, or whether it will rain tomorrow. Probability is all around us.
How can I practice probability at home?
Try playing games where you guess what will happen next, like rolling dice or spinning a spinner. Then talk about whether your guess was likely, unlikely, or certain.