Knight maths quest: probability

Quick answer

Probability is about how likely something is to happen – from certain events that always happen, to impossible events that never happen, and everything in between like likely or unlikely events.

Learning outcome

By the end of this page, you will be able to describe events as certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible, and use words like "more likely", "less likely", and "equally likely" to compare how probable different things are.

• I can sort events into categories: certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible
• I can explain why an event is more or less likely than another
• I can use words like "equally likely" to compare events
• I can imagine and predict what might happen in a game or real situation

Why this matters

Probability helps you understand the chances of things happening in your everyday life. Whether you're deciding what to wear when it's raining, guessing who will win a football match, or choosing which game to play at a party, probability helps you think about what might happen next. It's like being a detective for chance events!

How it works

Probability is all about how sure or unsure we are that something will happen. We can describe this using words:

1. Certain – Something that will definitely happen (like the sun rising tomorrow)
2. Impossible – Something that will never happen (like a dog flying)
3. Likely – Something that has a good chance of happening (like getting a head when flipping a coin)
4. Unlikely – Something that has a small chance of happening (like finding a gold coin in your pocket)

When we compare events, we can say one is more likely or less likely than another. We can also say two events are equally likely – meaning they have the same chance of happening.

Examples you can see

Let's imagine you're on a Knight maths quest and need to cross a bridge to get to the treasure. You have to choose between two paths:

• Path A: You'll definitely find a sword (certain)
• Path B: You'll find a dragon (impossible)

Now, let's think about other events:

Try it as a mini adventure

Knight's Tournament Challenge

You are a brave knight preparing for a tournament. You must choose which shield to wear for your first match. Your choices are:

• Shield 1: You will definitely win (certain)
• Shield 2: You will definitely lose (impossible)
• Shield 3: You might win or lose (likely or unlikely)

Which shield would you choose? Why?

Now, imagine you're at a football match:

1. It will rain during the match (likely or unlikely?)
2. The home team will score a goal (likely or unlikely?)
3. The match will end in a draw (likely or unlikely?)
4. The referee will give out 10 yellow cards (unlikely)
5. A player will score a hat-trick (unlikely)

Think about each event and decide if it's certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely.

Common mistakes

• Mistake: Thinking that "likely" means "will definitely happen".
  Why it happens: Children might confuse "likely" with "certain".
  Fix: Explain that "likely" means "has a good chance", not "will happen".
• Mistake: Saying that two events are equally likely when they're not.
  Why it happens: Children might guess without thinking carefully.
  Fix: Use real examples or simple experiments to compare chances.
• Mistake: Thinking that impossible means "very unlikely".
  Why it happens: The words "impossible" and "unlikely" sound similar.
  Fix: Explain that impossible means "never happens", not "hardly ever happens".

Parent and carer guide

Help your child explore probability by asking questions about daily events:

• What do you think is most likely to happen today?
• What do you think is impossible to happen?
• Can you find something in your house that is certain to happen?
• What event do you think is equally likely to happen?

Play simple games like rolling dice or flipping coins to see how likely different outcomes are. You can also use everyday situations like:

• What's more likely – getting a head or a tail when flipping a coin?
• Is it more likely to get a 3 or a 6 when rolling a dice?
• Is it more likely to find a red sock or a blue sock in your drawer?

Remember, it's okay if your child isn't sure – that's part of learning. Encourage them to explain their thinking, not just guess.

Practice questions

1. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that you will eat breakfast tomorrow?
2. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that a cat will fly?
3. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that you will get a head when flipping a coin?
4. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that it will snow in summer?
5. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that you will have a friend at school tomorrow?
6. Which is more likely: rolling a 2 or rolling a 5 on a dice?
7. Which is less likely: getting a tail or getting a head when flipping a coin?
8. Are getting a 1 and getting a 6 equally likely when rolling a dice?
9. Is it more likely to get a 4 or a 7 when rolling a dice?
10. Which is more likely: finding a blue pen or a red pen in your pencil case?

Answers:

1. Likely
2. Impossible
3. Likely (or equally likely)
4. Impossible
5. Likely
6. Equally likely
7. Equally likely
8. Equally likely
9. Getting a 4 is more likely
10. Depends on your pencil case

FAQ

What does probability mean?

Probability is how likely something is to happen. We use words like certain, impossible, likely, and unlikely to describe this.

How can I tell if something is likely or unlikely?

If something has a good chance of happening, it's likely. If it has a small chance, it's unlikely. If it's impossible, it can never happen.

Can two events be equally likely?

Yes! If two events have the same chance of happening, we say they are equally likely. For example, getting a head or a tail when flipping a coin are equally likely.

What is a certain event?

A certain event is something that will definitely happen. For example, the sun rising tomorrow is certain.

How can I practice probability at home?

You can play games like rolling dice, flipping coins, or picking marbles from a bag to see what happens. You can also talk about what's likely to happen in your daily life, like "It's likely to rain today" or "It's impossible for me to fly".