Museum maths quest: probability

Quick answer

Probability is about how likely something is to happen, and we can describe this using words like certain, likely, unlikely, and impossible.

Learning outcome

By the end of this page, you will be able to describe events using probability words and understand how likely or unlikely they are to happen.

• You can sort events from impossible to certain.
• You can use likely and unlikely to describe everyday events.
• You can explain what it means for something to be certain or impossible.
• You can predict what might happen in a game or puzzle using probability words.

Why this matters

Probability helps us understand the world around us! When you play a game, you might wonder if you'll win or lose. When you look at the weather, you might think it's likely to rain. In a museum, you might wonder if you'll find a treasure or if a dinosaur bone is impossible to find. Probability helps us think about these things!

How it works

Probability is all about how much something could happen. We can sort events from impossible (never happens) to certain (always happens). Here’s how we think about it:

1. Impossible – This event will never happen. Example: A coin landing on its edge.
2. Unlikely – This event might happen, but it's not very likely. Example: Getting a 6 when rolling a dice.
3. Likely – This event probably will happen. Example: Getting a number less than 6 when rolling a dice.
4. Certain – This event will always happen. Example: The sun rising tomorrow.

Examples you can see

Let’s imagine you’re on a Museum maths quest! You’re looking for a special artefact. Here are some clues you might find:

Let’s look at a few more examples:

• Likely: It will rain tomorrow. (We usually see rain in the UK, so it's likely.)
• Unlikely: You will win a million pounds in the lottery. (It's very hard to win big prizes.)
• Certain: You will breathe tomorrow. (You always breathe, so it's certain.)
• Impossible: You will be 100 years old next year if you are only 5. (You can't grow that fast!)

Try it as a mini adventure

Imagine you're a detective in a museum! You have a treasure map with clues. You need to find out how likely each clue is to lead to treasure:

1. Clue 1: "Look for a red hat." – Likely (There are many red hats in the museum)
2. Clue 2: "Find a coin that lands on its edge." – Impossible (Coins don’t land on their edges)
3. Clue 3: "Go to the dinosaur room." – Certain (You must go to the dinosaur room to find the treasure)
4. Clue 4: "Find a coin that is a 10p piece." – Likely (There are many 10p coins)
5. Clue 5: "Find a coin that is 1000p." – Impossible (There is no 1000p coin in the UK)

Now, try this challenge: Can you sort these events from impossible to certain?

• Rolling a dice and getting a 7
• Rolling a dice and getting a number less than 7
• Rolling a dice and getting a number between 1 and 6
• Rolling a dice and getting a number greater than 6

Common mistakes

• Mistake: Thinking that a coin landing on its edge is possible.
  Why it happens: People sometimes hear about coins landing on their edges in movies or stories.
  Fix: A coin is much more likely to land on heads or tails.
• Mistake: Thinking that getting a 6 on a dice is likely.
  Why it happens: It’s easy to think that because 6 is a big number.
  Fix: A dice has 6 sides, so getting a 6 is only 1 in 6 chances – that's unlikely.
• Mistake: Saying that getting a number less than 7 on a dice is impossible.
  Why it happens: Some children think that since 7 is the highest number, it can't happen.
  Fix: A dice has numbers 1 to 6, so getting a number less than 7 is certain.

Parent and carer guide

As a parent or carer, you can help your child by:

1. Using probability words in everyday situations: “It’s likely we’ll see a dog on our walk,” or “It’s impossible to swim in a fire.”
2. Playing games that involve chance, like rolling dice or spinning a spinner, and asking your child to guess what might happen next.
3. Using real-life examples to talk about probability: “It’s certain that the sun will rise tomorrow,” or “It’s unlikely that we’ll find a dinosaur bone in the garden.”
4. Encouraging your child to think about events in terms of chance and to describe them using words like likely, unlikely, certain, and impossible.
5. Letting your child explore and make predictions – this builds confidence in understanding probability.

Remember: Don’t worry if your child makes mistakes – they’re part of learning!

Practice questions

1. Is it likely, unlikely, certain, or impossible to roll a 1 on a dice?
2. Is it likely, unlikely, certain, or impossible to find a coin in your pocket?
3. Is it likely, unlikely, certain, or impossible to be 100 years old next year if you are 5?
4. Is it likely, unlikely, certain, or impossible to get a number less than 7 when rolling a dice?
5. Is it likely, unlikely, certain, or impossible to find a 100p coin in a UK museum?

Answers

1. Unlikely
2. Likely
3. Impossible
4. Certain
5. Impossible

FAQ

What does probability mean?
Probability is how likely something is to happen. We use words like certain, likely, unlikely, and impossible to describe it.

Can something be both likely and unlikely?
No, something is either likely or unlikely, not both. If something is more than half the time, it’s likely. If it’s less than half the time, it’s unlikely.

Why do we use probability in real life?
Probability helps us make good decisions. For example, we might think it's likely to rain tomorrow, so we take an umbrella.

What is the difference between certain and impossible?
If something is certain, it will always happen. If something is impossible, it will never happen.

How can I help my child learn probability?
You can talk about chance in daily life, play games with dice or spinners, and ask your child to guess what might happen next in a story or game.