Spy maths quest: probability
A story-led junior maths adventure using codes, gadgets and secret missions to talk about likely, unlikely, certain and impossible events.
Quick answer
Probability is about how likely something is to happen – from certain to impossible – and we can use words like 'likely', 'unlikely', 'certain', and 'impossible' to describe it.
Learning outcome
By the end of this page, you will be able to describe how likely events are using words like 'certain', 'impossible', 'likely', and 'unlikely'.
- You can sort events from most likely to least likely.
- You can explain why some events happen more often than others.
- You can use probability words to describe your own everyday events.
- You can play a probability game and talk about what you notice.
Why this matters
Probability helps us understand the world around us. Whether you're guessing what game to play, deciding if it will rain, or planning a secret mission, knowing how likely something is helps you make good choices. In spy missions, knowing what is possible helps agents plan better and avoid danger!
How it works
Probability is about how sure we are that something will happen. We can use words to show how likely something is:
- Certain – This always happens. Like the sun rising in the morning.
- Impossible – This never happens. Like a cat flying.
- Likely – This happens more often than not. Like getting a head when you flip a coin.
- Unlikely – This happens less often. Like finding a gold coin in your pocket.
Examples you can see
Let's look at some examples that help you understand these words:
| Event | How likely? |
|---|---|
| It will rain tomorrow | Likely (if the weather says so) |
| You will eat lunch today | Certain (if you're alive and eating) |
| You will find a dinosaur in your garden | Impossible (dinosaurs are extinct) |
| You will win a gold star in class | Likely (if you try your best) |
| You will find a 10-pound note on the floor | Unlikely (very rare!) |
Let's think of more examples:
- It will be dark at night – Certain
- You will grow taller this year – Likely
- You will find a flying pig – Impossible
- It will snow in July in the UK – Unlikely
- You will get a surprise present – Likely
Try it as a mini adventure
Imagine you're a secret agent on a mission! You're in a room with three doors. Behind each door is a different chance of finding a treasure:
- Door A – You will definitely find a chocolate bar – Certain
- Door B – You will find a gold coin – Likely
- Door C – You will find a flying car – Impossible
Your job is to choose the door that gives you the best chance of getting something good. Which door would you pick? Why?
Now, let’s make a simple probability chart to help you decide:
| Door | What you might find | How likely? |
|---|---|---|
| A | Chocolate bar | Certain |
| B | Gold coin | Likely |
| C | Flying car | Impossible |
Which door would you go through? And what makes you think that?
Common mistakes
- Mistake: Thinking that "likely" means "definitely going to happen".
Why it happens: Confusing words. "Likely" means more than half the time, not all the time.
Fix: Remember, "likely" is good, but not certain!
- Mistake: Saying "impossible" when something just hasn't happened yet.
Why it happens: Thinking that just because something hasn’t happened, it can’t happen.
Fix: Impossible means it can never happen, like a cat flying.
- Mistake: Using "certain" for things that might not happen.
Why it happens: Not thinking carefully about what can happen.
Fix: "Certain" is only for things that always happen, like the sun rising.
Parent and carer guide
As a parent or carer, you can help your child understand probability by:
- Playing games where you talk about chance – like rolling dice or flipping coins.
- Looking at weather forecasts and talking about how likely it is to rain.
- Using everyday moments to ask questions like, "Is it likely you'll get a sticker today?"
- Reading books or watching shows that talk about chance and prediction.
- Not worrying if your child gets confused at first – probability is a new idea!
Remember: It’s okay if your child says something like "I think it’s unlikely that I’ll get a gold star" – that’s a sign they're starting to understand!
Practice questions
- Is it likely or impossible that you will eat breakfast tomorrow? Answer: Likely
- Is it certain or unlikely that a dog will fly? Answer: Impossible
- Is it certain or likely that you will sleep tonight? Answer: Certain
- Is it likely or unlikely that you will find a 50p coin on the floor? Answer: Unlikely
- Is it certain or impossible that the sun will rise tomorrow? Answer: Certain
- Is it likely or impossible that you will find a dragon in your garden? Answer: Impossible
- Is it likely or unlikely that you will have a snack today? Answer: Likely
- Is it certain or unlikely that a fish will walk on land? Answer: Impossible
- Is it likely or impossible that you will win a prize in a raffle? Answer: Unlikely
- Is it certain or likely that you will go to school tomorrow? Answer: Likely
FAQ
What does probability mean?
Probability means how likely something is to happen. We use words like certain, impossible, likely, and unlikely to describe it.
Can you give me more examples of probability words?
Yes! Other words include: very likely, not likely, probably, and maybe. These help us talk about how sure we are about something.
How do I know if something is impossible?
Something is impossible if it can never happen. For example, a human flying without a plane is impossible.
Why do we learn about probability?
Probability helps us make smart decisions. Whether it's choosing which game to play, planning a trip, or guessing what your friend might do, understanding chance helps us think better.
Can I use probability in games?
Absolutely! In games, you can guess what might happen next. For example, in a board game, if you roll a dice, you might guess that a 6 is unlikely, but a 3 or 4 is more likely.