Submarine maths quest: probability
A story-led junior maths adventure using depths, pressure and hidden coordinates to talk about likely, unlikely, certain and impossible events.
Quick answer
You can use probability to predict how likely it is that something will happen. When you're on a submarine, you can use probability to guess what might happen at different depths – like whether you'll see a fish or a treasure chest!
Learning outcome
By the end of this page, you will be able to describe how likely events are using words like 'certain', 'impossible', 'likely', and 'unlikely'.
- You can sort events from most likely to least likely.
- You can explain why some things are more or less likely to happen.
- You can use probability words when talking about real situations.
- You can imagine and predict what might happen in a submarine adventure.
Why this matters
Probability helps us understand how likely it is that something will happen. This is useful in many real-life situations – like deciding whether to take an umbrella, choosing which game to play, or planning a trip. In a submarine, knowing probability helps you prepare for what you might find at different depths. It's like being a detective, but instead of solving mysteries, you're predicting what will happen next!
How it works
Probability is all about how sure or unsure we are about something happening. When we talk about probability, we use words like:
- Certain – something that will definitely happen.
- Impossible – something that will never happen.
- Likely – something that probably will happen.
- Unlikely – something that probably won’t happen.
Think of it like a scale from 0 to 100:
- If something is 100% certain, it will definitely happen.
- If something is 0% impossible, it will never happen.
- If something is 50% likely, it's just as likely to happen as not.
Examples you can see
Let's imagine you're on a submarine adventure and you're exploring the ocean. Here are some things you might find and how likely they are:
| Event | Probability | Why? |
|---|---|---|
| Seeing a fish | Likely | There are lots of fish in the ocean! |
| Seeing a treasure chest | Unlikely | Most treasure chests are hidden in old ships, not deep in the ocean. |
| Getting stuck in a coral reef | Unlikely | Your submarine is designed to avoid obstacles. |
| Seeing a whale | Likely | Whales live in the ocean and can be seen from submarines. |
| Being trapped underwater forever | Impossible | Submarines have safety systems to keep you safe. |
Let’s try another example. If you're at a depth of 100 metres, you might expect to see:
- Sharks – Unlikely (they prefer deeper waters)
- Octopuses – Likely (they live in caves)
- Underwater volcanoes – Impossible (volcanoes are on land or under the sea surface)
- Seaweed – Certain (it grows everywhere in the ocean)
Try it as a mini adventure
Imagine you're on a submarine with your friend. You're going to dive to different depths and predict what you might find. Here's your mission:
- At 50 metres, you find a shark. Is this likely or unlikely?
- At 150 metres, you see a sunken ship. Is this likely or unlikely?
- At 300 metres, you spot a sea turtle. Is this likely or unlikely?
- At 500 metres, you discover a volcano. Is this likely or impossible?
- At 1000 metres, you see a fish. Is this likely or certain?
Answer these questions and think about why each event is more or less likely. Write your answers or draw a picture to show your predictions!
Common mistakes
- Mistake: Saying that something is likely just because it happens sometimes.
Why it happens: Children often mix up probability words.
Fix: Think about how often it happens – if it happens most of the time, it's likely. If it rarely happens, it's unlikely. - Mistake: Thinking that something that is unlikely can't happen.
Why it happens: Children sometimes think unlikely means never.
Fix: Unlikely means it's not very probable, but it can still happen. - Mistake: Saying everything is equally likely.
Why it happens: It's hard to know if events are truly equal.
Fix: Compare how often things happen to decide which is more or less likely.
Parent and carer guide
Help your child explore probability by asking them to think about what they might find in different situations. Try these simple activities:
- Play a game where you guess what might happen in a story – like, “If you go to the park, is it more likely to rain or be sunny?”
- Use everyday objects like coins or dice to show how some things are more or less likely to happen.
- Ask your child to explain why they think something is likely or unlikely – this helps them think clearly.
- Read books or watch videos about submarines and ocean life to make the adventure more real.
- Encourage them to draw or write about their submarine adventure and what they expect to see.
Remember: It's okay if your child gets confused at first. Probability is tricky, but with practice, it gets easier. Don't worry if they don't get it right away – it's a skill that builds over time!
Practice questions
- Is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely that you will see a fish in the ocean? Answer: Likely
- Is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely that you will find a treasure chest on the ocean floor? Answer: Unlikely
- Is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely that you will get trapped underwater forever? Answer: Impossible
- Is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely that you will see a whale while diving? Answer: Likely
- Is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely that you will find a volcano at 1000 metres underwater? Answer: Impossible
- Is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely that you will see a sea turtle at 300 metres? Answer: Likely
- Is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely that you will find a sunken ship at 50 metres? Answer: Unlikely
- Is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely that you will see a shark at 50 metres? Answer: Unlikely
- Is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely that you will see a fish at 1000 metres? Answer: Likely
- Is it certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely that you will find a treasure chest at 500 metres? Answer: Unlikely
FAQ
What does probability mean?
Probability is how likely it is that something will happen. We use words like certain, impossible, likely, and unlikely to describe this.
Can something be both likely and unlikely?
No, something is either likely or unlikely. If it's more than half the time, it's likely. If it's less than half the time, it's unlikely.
How do I know if something is impossible?
Something is impossible if it can never happen. For example, you can't find a volcano underwater at 1000 metres because volcanoes are on land or at the surface.
Why do we need to know about probability?
Probability helps us make good decisions. It helps us guess what might happen, so we can be prepared. In a submarine, it helps you know what to expect and stay safe.
Can I use probability in games?
Yes! In games, you can use probability to guess what might happen next. For example, if you're rolling a dice, you can say it's more likely to land on a 3 than a 6, but either could happen.