Maths Adventures
Superhero maths quest: probability
A story-led junior maths adventure using rescues, speed and city maps to talk about likely, unlikely, certain and impossible events.
Quick answer
Probability is about how likely something is to happen – from certain events (like the sun rising) to impossible ones (like flying without wings). In superhero maths, we use probability to predict what might happen when heroes save the city!Learning outcome
By the end of this page, you will be able to sort events as certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible, and explain your thinking using words and simple examples. Success signs:- You can say which events are more or less likely to happen.
- You can use words like "certain", "likely", "unlikely", and "impossible" to describe events.
- You can explain why something is more or less probable than other things.
- You can make predictions about what might happen in a superhero rescue mission.
Why this matters
Probability helps us understand the chances of things happening – which is super useful for heroes! When a superhero needs to save the city, they must know if it's likely they’ll find the villain, or if it's impossible to escape a dangerous building. Probability also helps us make good choices in everyday life, like picking the right bus or guessing how many cookies are left in a jar.How it works
We sort events into four groups based on how likely they are to happen:- Certain – This will definitely happen (like the sun rising).
- Impossible – This will never happen (like a cat flying).
- Likely – This will probably happen (like rain on a cloudy day).
- Unlikely – This might happen, but not very often (like finding a gold coin in your pocket).
Examples you can see
Let’s imagine a superhero rescue mission. Here are some events and how we sort them:| Event | How likely? | Why? |
|---|---|---|
| The hero saves the day | Likely | Heroes are good at saving people! |
| The villain escapes | Unlikely | Heroes usually catch villains! |
| It rains tomorrow | Likely | It’s cloudy today – rain is possible. |
| The hero flies without wings | Impossible | People can’t fly without wings or machines. |
| The hero gets a superpower | Unlikely | Superpowers don’t happen every day! |
| The sun rises tomorrow | Certain | The sun always rises in the morning. |
Try it as a mini adventure
Superhero Rescue Mission: Probability Challenge You are a superhero preparing for a big rescue. Your team has to find a lost child in a busy city. Here’s your adventure: Step 1: You know the child is in the city. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that the child is in the city? Step 2: It’s raining today. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that the child is looking for shelter? Step 3: The child is hiding behind a tree. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that the child is hiding? Step 4: You can fly. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that you can find the child quickly? Step 5: You can’t fly. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that you can find the child quickly? Step 6: The child is in a building with a fire. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that the child is safe? Step 7: You have a map of the city. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that the map will help you find the child? Step 8: The child is a superhero too. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that the child can save themselves? Step 9: You are a superhero with a special power. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that you can save the child? Step 10: You have a robot helper. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that the robot will help? Answer key:- Likely
- Likely
- Certain
- Likely
- Unlikely
- Unlikely
- Likely
- Likely
- Likely
- Likely
Common mistakes
- Mistake: Thinking that all events are equally likely.
Why it happens: Children may think everything has a 50/50 chance.
Fix: Encourage them to think about real-world situations and facts to judge likelihood. - Mistake: Confusing "impossible" with "very unlikely".
Why it happens: Both sound like things that don’t happen, but "impossible" means never.
Fix: Explain that impossible events are never going to happen, while unlikely events might happen sometimes. - Mistake: Using "maybe" instead of probability words.
Why it happens: Some children don’t know the right words.
Fix: Practice using "certain", "likely", "unlikely", and "impossible" in real-life situations.
Parent and carer guide
Parents and carers can help by:- Playing a game where you guess the probability of events (e.g., “Is it likely that we’ll get ice cream for dessert?”)
- Using everyday moments to talk about chance (e.g., “It’s cloudy – is it likely to rain?”)
- Using visual aids like a spinner or dice to show possible outcomes
- Encouraging children to explain their thinking and why they chose a certain probability
- Not worrying if they get it wrong – probability is a skill that grows with practice
Practice questions
- Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that you will eat lunch today?
- Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that a dog will fly?
- Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that the sun will rise tomorrow?
- Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that you will find a gold coin in your pocket?
- Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that you will go to school tomorrow?
- Likely
- Impossible
- Certain
- Unlikely
- Likely
FAQ
What does probability mean?
Probability means how likely something is to happen. We use words like certain, likely, unlikely, and impossible to describe this.
Can you give me more examples of probability?
Yes! If you roll a dice, it’s likely to land on a number between 1 and 6. It’s impossible to roll a 7. It’s certain that the sun will rise tomorrow.
Why do we need to learn about probability?
Probability helps us make smart decisions and predictions. For example, superheroes use probability to plan rescues, and we use it to guess what might happen next.
How can I practice probability at home?
You can play games like rolling dice or spinning a wheel, and guess what might happen. You can also talk about the chances of things happening in your day, like "It’s likely that we’ll get home before dinner."
What is the difference between 'likely' and 'certain'?
Something that is 'certain' will always happen, like the sun rising. Something that is 'likely' will probably happen, but not always, like rain on a cloudy day.