Theme park maths quest: probability

Quick answer

You can use words like likely, unlikely, certain, and impossible to describe how probable it is that something will happen, and you can also use fractions to show how likely something is in a theme park.

Learning outcome

By the end of this page, you will be able to describe events using words like likely, unlikely, certain, and impossible, and you will understand how to use fractions to show how probable something is.

• You can say if an event is more or less likely to happen.
• You can match words to simple fractions like 1/2, 1/4, 3/4.
• You can use what you know about chance to predict what might happen at a theme park.
• You can understand that some events are certain to happen, and some are impossible.

Why this matters

Probability is how we talk about how likely something is to happen. In a theme park, you might want to know:

• Is it likely that the rollercoaster will be open?
• Is it unlikely that you'll get a free ice cream?
• Is it certain that you'll need a ticket to ride?
• Is it impossible to ride a rollercoaster if you're under 120cm?

Understanding probability helps you make smart choices. If you know it's unlikely that a ride will be open, you might pick a different one. If it's certain that you need a ticket, you'll remember to bring money!

How it works

Probability is about how much chance there is that something will happen. We can describe this using words and numbers:

1. Impossible – This event will never happen. The chance is 0 out of any number. For example, it's impossible to ride a rollercoaster if you're under 100cm tall.
2. Unlikely – This event has a small chance of happening. It might happen, but it's not very likely. For example, it's unlikely that you'll win a prize from a ring toss game.
3. Even chance – This event has a 50% chance of happening. It's equally likely to happen or not happen. For example, when you flip a coin, it's even chance that it will land on heads or tails.
4. Likely – This event has a good chance of happening. It's more likely to happen than not. For example, it's likely that the ice cream van will be there.
5. Certain – This event will definitely happen. The chance is 1 out of 1. For example, it's certain that you need a ticket to ride a ride.

Examples you can see

Imagine you're at a theme park with your family. Here are some events and how likely they are:

Try it as a mini adventure

Adventure: The Theme Park Probability Quest

You're on a mission to find out how likely different events are at your local theme park. Here’s your quest:

1. First time: You see a sign that says "Rollercoaster open 80% of the time". Is this likely or unlikely?
2. Second time: You see a poster for a prize game. It says "1 in 10 people win a prize". Is this likely or unlikely?
3. Third time: You check the schedule. The water slide is open every day. Is this certain or impossible?
4. Fourth time: You see a sign that says "Only 50cm tall people can ride this ride". You're 1.3m tall. Is this certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible?
5. Fifth time: You find a coin in the grass. You flip it. Is it likely to land on heads?

Answer these questions as you go. What do you think about each one?

Common mistakes

• Mistake: Saying that something is "likely" just because it happens sometimes.
  Why it happens: Children might confuse how often something happens with how likely it is.
  Fix: Use words like "often" and "rarely" to describe frequency, but use "likely" only when you're talking about chance.
• Mistake: Thinking that "even chance" means it will happen exactly half the time.
  Why it happens: Children might think that 50% means it happens 50 times out of 100.
  Fix: Explain that 50% means it's equally likely to happen or not happen, not that it will happen exactly half the time.
• Mistake: Using "impossible" and "certain" in the wrong situations.
  Why it happens: Children might say something is "impossible" if they don't like it.
  Fix: Help them understand that "impossible" means it cannot happen under any circumstances.

Parent and carer guide

Helping your child with probability is about asking questions and making it fun:

1. Ask your child to think of events that are likely, unlikely, certain, or impossible in your daily life. For example, "Is it certain that you'll eat lunch today?"
2. Use a coin to show how it's even chance to land on heads or tails.
3. Look at the weather forecast together. Ask, "Is it likely to rain tomorrow?"
4. Play a game: roll a dice and ask, "Is it likely to roll a 6?"
5. Don’t worry if they get confused at first – probability is tricky, but with practice, it gets easier.

Practice questions

1. Is it likely or unlikely that you'll get a ticket for a ride?
   Answer: Certain
2. Is it likely or unlikely that you'll win a prize from a ring toss game?
   Answer: Unlikely
3. Is it likely or unlikely that you'll see a unicorn at the park?
   Answer: Impossible
4. Is it likely or unlikely that it will rain tomorrow?
   Answer: Depends on the forecast – could be likely or unlikely
5. Is it likely or unlikely that you'll get a free ice cream?
   Answer: Unlikely
6. Is it likely or unlikely that a coin will land on heads?
   Answer: Even chance
7. Is it likely or unlikely that you'll need to wait in a queue?
   Answer: Likely
8. Is it likely or unlikely that you'll see a bear at the park?
   Answer: Impossible
9. Is it likely or unlikely that you'll be hungry after lunch?
   Answer: Likely
10. Is it likely or unlikely that you'll be taller than your dad?
    Answer: Likely (if you're a child)

FAQ

What does "probability" mean?

Probability is how likely something is to happen. We use words like "certain", "likely", "unlikely", and "impossible" to describe this.

Can you give an example of even chance?

Flipping a coin is an even chance – it's equally likely to land on heads or tails.

How do you know if something is impossible?

If something cannot happen under any circumstances, it's impossible. For example, you can't ride a rollercoaster if you're under 100cm tall.

Why do we use fractions in probability?

Fractions help us show how much chance there is. For example, 1/4 means one chance out of four.

How can I practice probability at home?

You can practice by asking questions like "Is it likely that it will rain tomorrow?" or "Is it certain that you'll need a ticket to ride?"