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Maths Adventures

Treehouse maths quest: probability

A story-led junior maths adventure using ladders, plans and height measurements to talk about likely, unlikely, certain and impossible events.

Quick answer

Probability is about how likely something is to happen. In a Treehouse maths quest, you might find that climbing a ladder to build a treehouse is certain, but finding a treasure chest is unlikely.

Learning outcome

By the end of this page, you will be able to describe events as certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible, and use these words to sort everyday happenings into groups.

Why this matters

Probability helps us understand the chances of things happening. In a Treehouse maths quest, knowing if something is certain or unlikely helps you plan your adventure. Probability also helps us in real life when we decide what to do, like checking if it's likely to rain before going to the park, or if we'll get a surprise present.

How it works

Probability is about how sure we are that something will happen. We use words like:
  • Certain – something that will definitely happen
  • Likely – something that will probably happen
  • Unlikely – something that might happen but probably won't
  • Impossible – something that can never happen
Think of it like this:
  • It is certain that the sun will rise tomorrow
  • It is likely that you will eat lunch today
  • It is unlikely that you will find a gold coin in your lunch box
  • It is impossible that you will grow wings

Examples you can see

Let's imagine you are building a treehouse. Here are some events and how likely they are:
Event How likely?
You will need a ladder Certain
You will build a treehouse Likely
You will find a treasure chest Unlikely
You will fly to the moon Impossible
Here's another example with a fun game:
  • Rolling a dice and getting a 6 – Unlikely
  • Rolling a dice and getting a number between 1 and 6 – Certain
  • Rolling a dice and getting a 7 – Impossible
  • Rolling a dice and getting an even number – Likely

Try it as a mini adventure

Treehouse Maths Quest: Probability Adventure You are planning a treehouse adventure. You have a list of things that might happen. Your job is to sort them into the four groups:
  • Certain
  • Likely
  • Unlikely
  • Impossible
Adventure Challenge:
  1. It will be daytime – ?
  2. You will need to climb a ladder – ?
  3. You will find a rainbow – ?
  4. You will build a treehouse – ?
  5. You will find a pet dragon – ?
  6. You will eat breakfast – ?
  7. You will build a treehouse with a slide – ?
  8. You will fly to the moon – ?
Answers:
  1. It will be daytime – Certain
  2. You will need to climb a ladder – Certain
  3. You will find a rainbow – Unlikely
  4. You will build a treehouse – Likely
  5. You will find a pet dragon – Impossible
  6. You will eat breakfast – Likely
  7. You will build a treehouse with a slide – Likely
  8. You will fly to the moon – Impossible

Common mistakes

  • Mistake: Thinking that something unlikely is the same as something impossible.
    • Why it happens: Children may confuse words because they sound similar.
    • Fix: Remember, if something is impossible, it can never happen. If something is unlikely, it might happen, but it's not very likely.
  • Mistake: Saying that if something is not certain, it must be impossible.
    • Why it happens: Children might think that if something isn't always true, it must never be true.
    • Fix: If something is not certain, it might be likely or unlikely, but not impossible.
  • Mistake: Mixing up the words "likely" and "certain".
    • Why it happens: Children may use "likely" when they mean "certain" because both suggest something will happen.
    • Fix: Certain means it will definitely happen. Likely means it will probably happen, but it might not.

Parent and carer guide

Parents and carers can help by:
  • Asking questions about everyday events: "Is it certain that you will eat lunch today?" or "Is it likely that it will rain tomorrow?"
  • Playing games with probability words: "Let's think of three things that are certain, three that are likely, three that are unlikely, and three that are impossible."
  • Using real-life examples from your daily life to sort events into the four categories.
  • Encouraging children to think of their own examples for each category.
  • Not worrying if a child gets confused at first – probability is a big idea that takes time to understand.

Practice questions

  1. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that you will go to school tomorrow?
  2. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that you will grow a new tooth?
  3. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that you will find a gold coin in your pocket?
  4. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that you will see a dinosaur?
  5. Is it certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible that you will have a snack?
Answers:
  1. Likely
  2. Unlikely
  3. Unlikely
  4. Impossible
  5. Likely

FAQ

What does probability mean?

Probability is about how likely something is to happen. It helps us understand if something is certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible.

How can I use probability in real life?

You can use probability when deciding what to do, like checking if it's likely to rain before going to the park, or if you'll get a surprise present.

Can I make my own probability game?

Yes! You can make a list of events and sort them into certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible.

Why do we need to know about probability?

Probability helps us make better decisions. It helps us understand what might happen and prepare for it.

How can I help my child learn about probability?

You can talk about everyday events and ask your child to sort them into the four groups. You can also play games and use real-life examples to make it fun.